Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Started Feb 27, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
Seasons

Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (Smithsonian Magazine). To be considered “potentially habitable”, a planet must be up to 2.5 times the size of the Earth or up to 10 times Earth’s mass and orbit the right distance from its star for liquid water to possibly be present (Planetary Habitability Laboratory).


Resolution Criteria:  
As of 1 February 2024, the Habitable Worlds Catalog identified 69 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets, with five of them added to the list in 2023. This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the Habitable Worlds Catalog adds 5 or more new potentially habitable worlds to the list (i.e., the sum of their conservative and optimistic samples) discovered on or before 31 December 2024. To allow for planets discovered late in the year to be added to the catalog, this question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025.

Question clarification
Issued on 03/01/24 02:39pm
This question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025 to allow time for planets discovered at the end of the year to be added to the Habitable Worlds Catalog, and the resolution criteria for this question has been updated to this effect.
Issued on 04/22/24 06:13pm

The date a planet is discovered may be different than the date it is found to be potentially habitable, because a planet's habitability is determined through an analysis of data beyond just its discovery. Consequently, exoplanets can be added or removed from the list as more data become available and is analyzed.

Exoplanets being removed from the list will not affect resolution so long as at least 5 more exoplanets are found to be potentially habitable within the timeframe of the question. In other words, the question may still be resolved as "Yes" even if the catalog shows less than 74 potentially habitable exoplanets (i.e., 69 at the time the question launched + 5), if 5 planets are added but some are also removed from the list.

The INFER Team has the list of the 69 exoplanets included in the catalog at the time the question was launched in this spreadsheet. Note that this spreadsheet will not be updated and will only serve as a reference for resolution.

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