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Science and Technology
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC
(1 year)
Forecasting new scientific and technological advancements and their impact on society and governance.
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Decoding Disinformation (5)
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Crowd Forecast
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
43
·
86
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
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49
·
89
86%
Chance
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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58
·
186
6%
Chance
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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109
·
336
77%
Chance
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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178
·
414
54%
Chance
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
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133
·
362
12%
Chance
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
127
·
302
42%
Chance
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
138
·
336
11%
Chance
In collaboration with the
UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Closing
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
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171
·
505
6%
Chance
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
Closing
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
150
·
585
4%
Chance
1
2
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