« Back to topics

Science and Technology

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC (1 year)

Forecasting new scientific and technological advancements and their impact on society and governance.

Status

Type

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Featured Questions

Crowd Forecast

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 43 · 86

Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 89

86%

Chance

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Closing Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 58 · 186

6%

Chance

Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 109 · 336

77%

Chance

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 178 · 414

54%

Chance

Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 133 · 362

12%

Chance

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 127 · 302

42%

Chance

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Closing Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 138 · 336

11%

Chance

In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Closing Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 171 · 505

6%

Chance

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closing Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 150 · 585

4%

Chance