Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Started Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (CFR). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military coalition, while the Houthi movement has close ties to Iran and Hezbollah (CFR, Brookings). 

In April 2022, the United Nations negotiated a ceasefire between the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government (New York Times). The ceasefire was originally intended to last two months, but was extended twice before being allowed to lapse in October 2022 (IPS Journal, Brookings). Following Hamas’ October 2023 attack, there are now concerns that the war between Hamas and Israel could push the Houthis closer to Iran and away from a new ceasefire agreement with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen (ISPI).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using credible, open source reports that Yemen and the Houthi movement have signed a ceasefire. For the question to resolve “yes”, the ceasefire must be signed on or before 31 December 2024, last at least six months, and still be in effect on 31 December 2024. If a ceasefire is agreed upon, this question will be resolved either on 1 January 2025 or six months after the agreement is reached, whichever is later. A ceasefire originally intended to last less than six months but is extended to last longer than six months and lasts through the end of 2024 will still count towards resolution. 

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
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