Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Started Jan 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months

In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will resolve “Yes” if reputable open-source news reports indicate that the Lebanese parliament has appointed a president.
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