Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Window 6 months
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).