A major ground offensive is a large-scale military operation involving significant ground forces (such as infantry, tanks, and artillery) with the objective of seizing territory and defeating the enemy through direct combat. This question will be resolved as “Yes” for any of the listed cities if the Russian or Ukrainian governments announce that a major ground offensive against that city has been launched or is underway, or if the Institute of the Study of War’s daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reports that such an offensive has been launched or is underway. 

Note that you are required to provide forecasts for each of the three cities, but your forecasts need not sum to 100%, since any or all of them may be correct.