Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Started Apr 15, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC

The war in Ukraine has been ongoing since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 (U.S. Department of Defense). Most recently, Russian air strikes hit a power plant in the Kyiv region, and a missile attack killed four people in the Odesa region (Reuters, Radio Free Europe). Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has also warned that Russia may be preparing for a ground offensive targeting Kharkiv (Institute for the Study of War). 

Resolution Criteria:
A major ground offensive is a large-scale military operation involving significant ground forces (such as infantry, tanks, and artillery) with the objective of seizing territory and defeating the enemy through direct combat. This question will be resolved as “Yes” for any of the listed cities if the Russian or Ukrainian governments announce that a major ground offensive against that city has been launched or is underway, or if the Institute of the Study of War’s daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reports that such an offensive has been launched or is underway. 

Note that you are required to provide forecasts for each of the three cities, but your forecasts need not sum to 100%, since any or all of them may be correct.
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