Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Started
Nov 15, 2023 11:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months
Forecast Window 6 months
Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched multiple drone and missile attacks against Israel since the war between Israel and Hamas began on 7 October 2023 (Reuters). Recent statements by the leader of the Houthi movements indicate that in addition to the attacks on Israeli territory, they intend to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea as well (Newsweek, AP News).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reports confirming that Houthi rebels executed an attack (e.g., bombs, missiles, drones, etc.) that struck an Israeli vessel. Attacks that are intercepted or otherwise fail to make impact with an Israeli vessel will not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Question clarification
Issued on 11/30/23 09:21pm
For the purposes of this question, "an Israeli civil vessel" refers to any Israeli-flagged vessel or any Israeli-owned or -operated ship that the Israeli government acknowledges as an Israeli vessel. Additionally, "executing an attack" requires that a weapon strikes the vessel itself or passengers or crew members on that vessel.
For the purposes of this question, "an Israeli civil vessel" refers to any Israeli-flagged vessel or any Israeli-owned or -operated ship that the Israeli government acknowledges as an Israeli vessel. Additionally, "executing an attack" requires that a weapon strikes the vessel itself or passengers or crew members on that vessel.