Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?

Started May 18, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

Resolution Criteria:

An “irregular transition” refers to any process that does not follow the regular legal democratic process for replacing heads of state. Examples of irregular transitions include coups, assassinations, and other forms of undemocratic removal. In contrast, regular democratic transition processes may be triggered by events like resignations, elections, or deaths by natural causes. 

This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. In the event that it is unclear whether or not Dina Boluarte is still president (e.g., there are multiple claims on the presidency, Dina Boluarte loses control of parts of the country, or she is exiled), this question will be resolved based on confirmed reports of who the United States government recognizes as President of Peru. 

Additional Reading:


Question clarification
Issued on 08/29/23 05:35pm
Peru's constitution (English, Spanish) contains a provision for the President to be impeached by Congress (see Article 113). So, if Dina Boluarte is removed from the presidency through this process, this would be considered a "regular transition" and would not cause the question to be resolved as "Yes".
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.37%
No 99.63%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 470
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001406
2.
-0.001306
4.
-0.001206
5.
-0.001204

Consensus Trend

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