Confirmed previous forecast
-0.269892
Relative Brier Score
64
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 14 | 251 | 64 | 360 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 48 | 8 | 122 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 14 | 67 | 35 | 94 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 69 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
65%
(0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(+3%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Changing situation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Time's passage.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
0%
(0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Capability and willingness are two components of this question.
Are the Russians willing to make the effort needed to kill this many civilians in a single attack?
Can they, given Ukraine's air defenses, accomplish it?
The answers to both of these questions, at the moment, seem to be no. There doesn't seem to be any chance of them suddenly changing. If anything, Ukraine's air defenses are likely to become better and the Russian willingness to expend further material will be reduced.
Putin seems to be content with a steady stream of carnage.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
For one reason or another, the Russian military (or Putin himself) may feel the need to punish Ukraine in one spectacular display. This would be somewhat out of character, and things are not terribly desperate for them yet, but either to prove something to themselves or to the public, they could lash out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files