Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 14, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73% | 13% | +60% | -6% |
| No | 27% | 87% | -60% | +6% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 14, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 9% | -8% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 11% | -10% | -3% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 14, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 98% | -1% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 14, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 95% | 95% | +0% | +5% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 5% | 4% | +1% | -5% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:17PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 09:17PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:17PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 09:17PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 96% | +1% | +0% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:26PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 09:26PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +2% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 18% | +82% | +4% |
| No | 0% | Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 82% | -82% | -4% |