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Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 9, 2022 10:59PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 09, 2022 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Sep 11, 2022 02:48AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 11, 2022 02:48AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 28, 2022 07:02PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2022 07:02PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2022 07:13PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2022 06:57PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2022 06:51PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2022 07:08PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

As of Jan 30, 2023 09:44AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2022 09:44AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2022 09:51AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2022 10:34AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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