Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

Started Oct 06, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC

Concerns that Russia may use nuclear weapons have been elevated since the war in Ukraine began. Russia’s announcement of their annexation of Ukrainian territory and recent warnings that they would defend Russian territory with nuclear weapons have raised those risks even higher. 
 
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov). 
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.75%
No 94.25%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 506
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Oct 06, 2022 07:00PM UTC - Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC 8%
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC - Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC 4%
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC - Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC 6%

Consensus Trend

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