Started Oct 06, 2022 07:00PM UTC   •   Forecast Window 1 month

Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

Concerns that Russia may use nuclear weapons have been elevated since the war in Ukraine began. Russia’s announcement of their annexation of Ukrainian territory and recent warnings that they would defend Russian territory with nuclear weapons have raised those risks even higher. 

This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons ( 

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