Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)

Started Oct 06, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC

Concerns that Russia may use nuclear weapons have been elevated since the war in Ukraine began. Russia’s announcement of their annexation of Ukrainian territory and recent warnings that they would defend Russian territory with nuclear weapons have raised those risks even higher. 
 
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov). 

This question is a resolved time period from Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.71%
No 92.29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005097
2.
-0.004897
3.
-0.004897
5.
-0.004035

Consensus Trend

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