Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Started Nov 03, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC

China’s zero Covid policy has allowed government officials to boast of relatively few Covid deaths compared to the rest of the world (New York Times, France 24). However, many have raised concerns that such strict measures are damaging to the Chinese economy (BBC). In the lead up to the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October, some had hoped that the Chinese government would begin to lift COVID restrictions, but President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s commitment to the zero Covid policy (Bloomberg, New York Times).

This question will resolve using official statements from national Chinese Communist Party officials. 

Question clarification
Issued on 11/21/22 03:03pm
If the Chinese government makes an announcement before 31 December 2022 that the policy will end on a date after 31 December, this question will resolve as "yes". Additionally, an announcement that the government plans to end their zero Covid policy on a future date will count regardless of whether or not ending the policy at that time is subject to other conditions (e.g., cases remaining low).
Issued on 12/12/22 04:28pm
The INFER team has determined that the recently announced easing of COVID restrictions in China does not constitute "announcing the end of the zero-COVID policy”, as the announcement does not explicitly mention ending the policy, and critical components of China's dynamic zero-COVID strategy (e.g., lockdown and quarantine requirements) are still in place, even if reduced in scope. Consequently, this question will remain open.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.50%
No 95.50%

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