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New Prediction
Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 4, 2023 01:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 4, 2023 to Feb 4, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
China has been very strongly committed to its zero Covid policy
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Why might you be wrong?
Covid may be completely eradicated from China by that point
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
There are frequent border clashes at a small scale, which could lead to 25 casualties
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Why might you be wrong?
China is currently dealing with multiple conflicts and may not want to draw attention to the Sino-Indian border.
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New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2022 01:11AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 21, 2022 to Nov 21, 2022
Why do you think you're right?
Russia will not want to risk any intervention from the US.
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Why might you be wrong?
They may want to escalate the war in Ukraine
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