Putin has survived from Bush to Obama to Trump to Biden. Why would anything change?
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Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Social unrest or rebellion could displace Putin, leading me to be wrong.
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Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Xi Jinping has made it clear that zero COVID is more important than short term economic growth.
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Why might you be wrong?
Economic growth concerns could grow, leading to social unrest, leading to pressure to eliminate the zero COVID policy.
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Why do you think you're right?
The military is not yet ready.
Why might you be wrong?
China's power has peaked and it'll quickly beco.ing a declining power due to demographics, so it has to act fast.