In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?

Started Sep 07, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC

Question will be resolved using Elsevier (Scopus) data from the OECD’s policy observatory’s data on AI research. The link will take you to the “AI scientific publications time series by institution, from Scopus” page. Set the following parameters for the data: 
  • Quality Rankings: High Impact: FWCI > 1.5
  • Publication Type: ALL 
  • Institution Type: ALL 
See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the Elsevier (Scopus) data. Question will be closed for forecasting on 31 December 2022 and resolved in the first week of April 2023 to account for any lags in reporting.  

New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.
Resolution Notes

The Chinese Academy of Sciences had the most high-impact AI research publications.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 72.97%
No 27.03%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.232051
2.
-0.228714
3.
-0.221431
4.
-0.187556
5.
-0.151136

Consensus Trend

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