Low likelihood but I’m forecasting slightly above the crowd due to escalating events bw Iran and Israel in Syria and a possibly looming Iran retaliation, which would draw in the U.S.
-0.000045
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 3 | 30 | 10 | 213 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 94 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 103 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 59 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
95%
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
91%
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Unlikely to happen within Israel but not zero percent. Events have escalated since Israel’s attack in Syria against Iran, which the U.S. has said will lead to retaliation by Iran. It’s more likely Iran retaliates with a similar approach in neighboring areas, rather than inside Israel.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Not happening in next few days
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Unlikely due to time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Possible, though low chance. If this happens, I think logistics of moving will take longer than a year. And they wouldn’t announce this until the last stages.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Only a few days left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
Yes
39%
No
Starting off w/ a 60% likelihood given there are still 9 months to go. Previous conflicts/wars between Israel and Hamas have lasted about one year.
Files
