vpsays

Vanessa
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-0.000561

Relative Brier Score
184900123456789
Questions Forecasted
1820-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.2
Scored Questions

11

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 24 11 245
Comments 2 2 19 11 256
Questions Forecasted 0 0 17 9 120
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 1 62
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

updating, only a week left

Files
Why might you be wrong?

.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Gallop is currently at 43% as of May 2025. And given the typical downward trajectory of presidential polling, it's more likely this will stay about the same or go down. Also taking into account current events including Iran and ICE protests.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

His handling of foreign events or homeland security could be more well received than my prediction.

Files
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earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - May 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
vpsays
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
24%
Less than or equal to 1349
18%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
18%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
19%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
21%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?

Spreading the probabilities fairly even across the board. Depends on if there is another outbreak like the one in TX before Oct 2025. The last time there was a big outbreak was in 2019 at ~1300.  We're currently at ~1K, so we'd need another one to hit numbers greater than that. Given the lower trend in vaccination rates, and the administration's current public health stance,  I think the U.S. is in a position to beat the 2019 numbers.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If there's no other big outbreak in the US, then we'll certainly be less than 1349. 

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Predicting a low probability given the EU's policy position to phase out Russian gas, including a ban on new contracts and spot purchases by the end of 2025. Only a few member states are still reliant on Russian gas via TurkStream, so I suspect quarterly import volumes will remain well below the 15 bcm threshold. There are plenty of alternative suppliers (Algeria, US, Qatar, etc) that the EU could lean on besides Russia. (Reuters)

Files
Why might you be wrong?

There may be obstacles to the EU's policy position, such as opposition by Hungary or Slovakia. Other factors like a ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine, or a bad winter in Q4 2025 might push this up. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Slight adjustment upward from my earlier forecast.

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Why might you be wrong?

.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The pressure is on for Europe to fill the void left by the U.S. aid freeze,  which makes this plausible. I'm hesitant to start higher than 40% for a couple reasons: 

  • European countries are looking to build up their own stockpiles before transferring them to Ukraine. 
  • While plausible given the urgency -- Germany committed to sending Ukraine HIMARS rocket systems in 2024, and according to Forbes, the U.K., Germany, Italy and France have given Ukraine 25 tracked M270 launchers -- but the latest reports suggest production delays for these kinds of systems in 2025 (e.g., Estonia). 
  • Europe's HIMARS-compatible systems require procuring materials from the U.S., and U.S. export controls may hinder  progress.
  • It doesn't seem that Ukraine is using their existing U.S.  arsenal at max, so they may have enough to last them through at least later this year, perhaps why European packages in 2025 have focused on artillery and ammunition.
Files
Why might you be wrong?

I may be underestimating the willingness of the UK, Germany, or France to give up from their existing stockpiles (e.g., of M270s) - there may be greater urgency later this year, and I'll update accordingly. Or, it's plausible Europe is able to produce and procure systems at a faster pace outside of the U.S. (from Israel, Turkey, South Korea). 

Files
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earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
vpsays
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 62%
5%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
51%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
44%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?

It seems the trend is slow moving, and it is still unclear what kind of global impact Trump tariffs might have on US or global. I'm assuming that US is a major driver for other OECD countries and I don't think employment will increase in 2025. I think it is most likely to remain relatively comparable to '23/24 numbers or slightly lower. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A more significant drop than what I'm predicting could happen as it did during the pandemic given some similar catastrophically global event.

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Files
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