Updating my forecast due to time
1.699121
Relative Brier Score
106
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 1 | 6 | 32 | 14 | 217 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 94 |
Questions Forecasted | 1 | 6 | 22 | 13 | 106 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 59 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(-7%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Highly unlikely given Iran’s agenda and actions amid current events in the region
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Unlikely to be imposed in the next 30+ days…
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
It's already passed the House and imminent this coming week.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
95%
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Low likelihood but I’m forecasting slightly above the crowd due to escalating events bw Iran and Israel in Syria and a possibly looming Iran retaliation, which would draw in the U.S.
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
91%
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Unlikely to happen within Israel but not zero percent. Events have escalated since Israel’s attack in Syria against Iran, which the U.S. has said will lead to retaliation by Iran. It’s more likely Iran retaliates with a similar approach in neighboring areas, rather than inside Israel.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Not happening in next few days
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Unlikely due to time.
Files
New Badge