Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?

Started Feb 01, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

Several major oil and gas companies have announced that they are pausing shipments through the Red Sea, including BP in December 2023 and Shell in January 2024 (Forbes, Reuters). These decisions came after Houthi militants from Yemen launched attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea (BBC). BP has stated that the decision was made in order to protect their employees and that the “precautionary pause [will be] under ongoing review, subject to circumstances as they evolve in the region,” while Shell declined to comment (NBC News).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved as "Yes" if there are reports that BP or Shell has resumed shipping on or before 31 March 2024. Shipments do not need to return to the level they were at before the pause in order to count towards resolution. 

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 02/05/24 05:09pm
A typo in the resolution criteria has been corrected. Shipping must resume on or before 31 March 2024 to count towards resolution.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 117
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 56
Number of Forecasts 267
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 160
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003313
2.
-0.00231
3.
-0.002017
4.
-0.001882
5.
-0.00164

Consensus Trend

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