Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Started Apr 15, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC

The U.S. has been preparing to send a $60 billion military aid package to Ukraine for months (Le Monde). However, the package has been stalled in the House of Representatives with some lawmakers trying to block additional funding for the war in Ukraine, and others trying to gain leverage for other concessions (AP).

Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives pass a bill to send military and/or financial aid worth at least $10 billion to Ukraine. To count towards resolution, both chambers must pass the same bill, but the President is not required to sign it for the question to be resolved. 
Resolution Notes

On 23 April 2024, the U.S. Congress passed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024, a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth $95 billion (AP News).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 48
Number of Forecasts 87
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 102
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.291975
2.
-0.2556
3.
-0.235188
4.
-0.231963
5.
-0.155

Consensus Trend

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