SamIam

This is slightly above a 50/50 scenario, especially silly with the tensions in the Middle East and the expansion to missile facilities.

The strategy related floating vessels seems to have changed as it relates to civil vessels. That is what I am basing the 50/50 estimate upon. It would be a serious escalation to launch an attack against a military vessel and I figure it is around a 5% chance just to enter the realm of possibility with a low probability.

Democrats have crossed the isle to offset ultra conservative Republicans. This thing appears to be happening.

Before May 1 is an aggressive schedule. $10B appears to be a high threshold. And the additional concessions Speaker Mike Johnson is telegraphing appear to have significant opposition among Democrats.

Happening now in essence.

If so it will be Israel but given the recent attack on Iran’s embassy, launching missles is unlikely.

I would say 100% but will hedge my bets slightly. This is not likely to occur under the current environment.

A year is a long time in the Middle East with hostilities on every horizon and so much fervor being manifest. However, with potential allies tied up in military action and conflicts over Taiwan it is not the right timing for Iran to attempt any direct military activities.

Cyber attacks have become common place and could be Israel’s next answer to future attacks. The chances will escalate if Iran’s nuclear program creates news indicating advancement.