14th
Accuracy Rank

Frexed

About:
Show more

-0.306828

Relative Brier Score

48

Forecasts

9

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 6 48 48 48
Comments 0 3 17 17 17
Questions Forecasted 0 4 15 15 15
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 9 9 9
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

A 100 casualties is a pretty severe attack, it's possible only if an attack is carried out either on a congregation of people or over a large area. The first seems unlikely... Strategically, attacking the capital of Ukraine serves several purposes: boosting morale, diversion of resources, distraction of attention... These are more easily served by low intensity harassing rather than a targeted bombardment. Therefore it's unlikely that such severe attack would occur.

A more interesting question would have been whether the western nations will provide an equivalent to Israel's iron dome to Ukraine. If the intensity of the war increased to levels where such attacks where occuring, it would likely lead to greater support to Ukraine from the western nations.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The Russian military's antics have not necessarily been based on sound strategy.

Files
New Prediction

It has already happened.

Files
New Prediction

Based on @ctsats comment with the email from Prof. Abel Méndez,

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

It seems certain that the house of representatives will vote on this bill. The bill will pass as it has bipartisan support.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

If the speaker fails to bring the bill to the floor.

Files
New Badge
Frexed
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The speaker of the house intends to schedule a vote on the modified aid bill this Saturday. The bill is supported by the president, so should pass with democratic support if it comes to the floor. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The republican legislators have failed to bring legislation for a vote previously because of Donald Trump's public opposition. Trump is opposing this bill, so it is easily conceivable that the bill is killed. 

Files
New Badge
Frexed
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Mar 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction

The US abstained on the vote regarding the ceasefire agreement.


(Correcting previous fat finger error)

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The US abstained on the security council vote regarding the ceasefire.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username