-0.306828
Relative Brier Score
48
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
Comments | 0 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Definitions |
Why do you think you're right?
A 100 casualties is a pretty severe attack, it's possible only if an attack is carried out either on a congregation of people or over a large area. The first seems unlikely... Strategically, attacking the capital of Ukraine serves several purposes: boosting morale, diversion of resources, distraction of attention... These are more easily served by low intensity harassing rather than a targeted bombardment. Therefore it's unlikely that such severe attack would occur.
A more interesting question would have been whether the western nations will provide an equivalent to Israel's iron dome to Ukraine. If the intensity of the war increased to levels where such attacks where occuring, it would likely lead to greater support to Ukraine from the western nations.
Why might you be wrong?
The Russian military's antics have not necessarily been based on sound strategy.
It has already happened.
Based on @ctsats comment with the email from Prof. Abel Méndez,
Why do you think you're right?
It seems certain that the house of representatives will vote on this bill. The bill will pass as it has bipartisan support.
Why might you be wrong?
If the speaker fails to bring the bill to the floor.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
The speaker of the house intends to schedule a vote on the modified aid bill this Saturday. The bill is supported by the president, so should pass with democratic support if it comes to the floor.
Why might you be wrong?
The republican legislators have failed to bring legislation for a vote previously because of Donald Trump's public opposition. Trump is opposing this bill, so it is easily conceivable that the bill is killed.
Star Commenter - Mar 2024
The US abstained on the vote regarding the ceasefire agreement.
(Correcting previous fat finger error)
Why do you think you're right?
The US abstained on the security council vote regarding the ceasefire.