need a massive once in >10 year event next month for this to be above 499
-0.517074
Relative Brier Score
513
Forecasts
32
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 41 | 164 | 1254 | 513 | 1340 |
| Comments | 0 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 36 |
| Questions Forecasted | 41 | 44 | 84 | 53 | 91 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 10 | 104 | 32 | 114 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Apr 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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Top Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
(-1%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024
85%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to May 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
78%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Even if May came in at the lowest # of any month in the last year, and there were no more events the last 10 days of April, we would come in right at 2250