Passage of time
-1.195629
Relative Brier Score
1406
Forecasts
117
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 20 | 144 | 1285 | 579 | 1406 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 36 |
| Questions Forecasted | 17 | 45 | 85 | 55 | 93 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 7 | 102 | 35 | 117 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-1%)
Yes
65%
(+1%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
27%
(-3%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
73%
(+3%)
No
May 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
Passage of time without evidence that this will occur
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(-1%)
Yes
58%
(+1%)
No
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
27%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2024
"The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended"