Recent attack from the NE may indicate a push toward Kharkiv. Seems unlikely Russia will take Kharkiv, but they could get close enough to force the population to flee
-0.20006
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
55%
(+25%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
3%
(-1%)
Odesa
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+10%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
4%
(+3%)
Odesa
Good gains being made in Donbas, making a Kharkov announcement as part of the long-rumored May offensive a strong possibility.
Also upped Odessa slightly as there have been more missile attacks there of late (like Kharkov)
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
He’s still here
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+7%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Recent advances make Kharkov more possible, or rather, the announcement of an offensive targeting it
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(-8%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
75%
(+8%)
No
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
Chance of a deal in Gaza might lead to delay in HB’s hostilities
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Kharkiv
1%
Kyiv
1%
Odesa
Kharkiv seems possible, also Dnipro. They likely want the rest of Donetsk oblast plus maybe a push to the E40. I doubt they will try to take Kharkiv proper in this timeframe, but could well “announce” that they will try to
Odessa is logistically difficult while Kiev would require a shift of forces to Belarus. Probably lacking in manpower to do that this year
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Done deal
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Yes
0%
(-1%)
No
Seems like a done deal
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+54%)
Yes
1%
(-54%)
No
Looks good in the house
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