Confirmed previous forecast
-0.030951
Relative Brier Score
91
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 13 | 640 | 91 | 1576 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 60 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 13 | 56 | 18 | 125 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 31 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+14%)
Less than or equal to 49
5%
(-14%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Update based on crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
1%
(0%)
2024 Q1
1%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Update on time