Forecasted Questions
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 20, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 20, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 20, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024 | Jul 20, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 10:08AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 20, 2024 10:08AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 3% | 4% | -1% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 07:47AM UTC
(17 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 07:47AM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2024 07:47AM UTC
(17 days ago)
Apr 22, 2024 07:47AM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 13% | -5% | -2% |
| No | 92% | 87% | +5% | +2% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 06:22AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 06:22AM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 95% | 95% | +0% | +6% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 5% | 4% | +1% | -5% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 06:22AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 06:22AM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024 | May 25, 2024 | 5% | -4% | +3% |
| No | 99% | Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024 | May 25, 2024 | 95% | +4% | -3% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 06:22AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 06:22AM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +0% |