Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Started
Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Closing May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
In August 2020, more than 10,000 people joined anti-government protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who gained power in a coup in 2014 (Reuters). The protests were fueled in large part by the arrests of pro-democracy activists and continued into 2021 (Vox, Crisis Group). Thailand’s next general election is scheduled for 14 May 2023. However, many are concerned that the elections may spark political unrest, as tensions that led to widespread protests in recent years have gone unresolved (ACLED).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using the Carnegie Endowment’s Global Protest Tracker. You can find Thailand’s protest by scrolling down the alphabetical list of countries on the tracker’s home page or by clicking Thailand on the map. For more information about the Global Protest Tracker click the teal box labeled “About the Tracker” on the right-hand side of the homepage. The definitions and limitations tabs have helpful information about what constitutes “significant protests,” how start dates are determined, and the challenges of estimating protest size.
The question will resolve as “Yes” if a protest is recorded for Thailand whose start date is between April 2023 and April 2024, inclusive, and whose peak size is recorded as 10,000 or more. A peak size that is recorded as “greater than” a number less than 10,000 (e.g., >5,000) will not count.
The Global Protest Tracker is updated monthly, and records the month the protest starts. If the Global Protest Tracker records a protest that meets the resolution criteria, the INFER team will use open-source media to determine the resolution date. If it is unclear when the 10,000 protestor threshold was reached, the resolution date will be set as the last day of the month. If the resolution criteria have not been met by 30 April 2024, the question will be resolved after the April 2024 data have been released, typically in the first two weeks of May.