| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 23 | 253 | 74 | 370 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 123 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 23 | 68 | 37 | 96 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 69 |
| Definitions | |||||
As mentioned by other forecasters, it must be "nation-wide." Currently, as the Junta controls only about half the country, an affirmative resolution would require one side to 1. Gain total control 2. Decide to hold elections before July of next year.
Seems unlikely.
Typically things take more time than we expect, but occasionally the opposite is true.
Raising likelihood in light of recent events.
Why do you think you're right?
Although he has access to excellent healthcare and long-lived family members, his health is not stellar and the political situation in Iran (and the Middle East as a whole) is far from stable.
Why might you be wrong?