adjusting
-0.056195
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
974
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 32 | 96 | 1149 | 974 | 4664 |
| Comments | 0 | 6 | 163 | 149 | 209 |
| Questions Forecasted | 32 | 32 | 92 | 74 | 176 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 175 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-5%)
Yes
99%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-5%)
Yes
85%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
40%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
24%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-1%)
Yes
77%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
98%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
63%
(0%)
Yes
37%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
adjusting
Why might you be wrong?