INFER Public

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	10%	4%	+6%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	90%	95%	-5%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Aug 14, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	3%	+0%	-1%
No	97%	97%	+0%	+1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:42PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	97%	+2%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
40 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:43PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
No	97%	96%	+1%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:43PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:43PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	10%	-3%	+0%
No	93%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	90%	+3%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:44PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025	Aug 14, 2024	9%	+1%	-3%
No	90%	May 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025	Aug 14, 2024	91%	-1%	+3%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:53PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	May 14, 2024 to Jun 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	7%	-2%	+1%
No	95%	May 14, 2024 to Jun 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	93%	+2%	-1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:58PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	2%	+1%	-1%
No	97%	May 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2024	Jun 14, 2024	98%	-1%	+1%

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