INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.014063
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	0.00028
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	0.055141
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)	-0.026269
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	-0.00089
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC	What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?	-0.007822
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.000314
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)	-0.032834
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.000723
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	-0.031681
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	-0.378715
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.0
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	-0.000052
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.027168
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	-0.258298
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?	-0.000914
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?	0.000083
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?	-0.000455
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?	-0.000032
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?	-0.009471

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