How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
Started
Sep 07, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology have sparked a revolution in self-driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired). However, concerns about safety and distrust of AI may hamper progress (National Law Review, International Journal of Human Computer Interaction).
On August 10, California regulators loosened restrictions on Cruise and Waymo, allowing them to operate self-driving taxis (or “robotaxis”) across San Francisco at all hours and charge fares (Wired, Vox). This decision was met with some controversy and pushback, as the city of San Francisco asked state regulators to pause approvals less than a week later (SF Chronicle). Collisions involving autonomous vehicles later led regulators to order Cruise to reduce the number of operating robotaxis (CBS, CNN).
Resolution Criteria:
Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with accident dates from October through December 2023. For reference, a spreadsheet containing the total count of collision reports for each month from January 2017 through August 2023 is available here.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will close for forecasting on 31 December 2023 and resolve in late January 2024.
Additional Reading:
- Standing General Order on Crash Reporting (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)
- What are Self-Driving Cars and How Do They Work? (TechTarget)
- What Driverless Waymo Taxi Rides Are Like in San Francisco (New York Times)
- Cruise and Waymo see a surge in robotaxi app downloads (TechCrunch)
- Labor Day protest against Cruise robotaxis in San Francisco (NBC Bay Area)
Question clarification
Issued on 09/15/23 08:50pm
Please note that the California DMV only requires that autonomous vehicle manufacturers submit Autonomous Vehicle Collision Reports when the vehicle is operating under a testing permit, and such reporting is not required for vehicles operating under a deployment permit. The California DMV defines “Deployment” as “the operation of an autonomous vehicle on public roads by members of the public who are not employees, contractors, or designees of a manufacturer or for purposes of sale, lease, providing transportation services or transporting property for a fee, or otherwise making commercially available outside of a testing program.” Consequently, collisions involving some autonomous vehicles, such as those operating as robotaxis, may not be recorded.
Please note that the California DMV only requires that autonomous vehicle manufacturers submit Autonomous Vehicle Collision Reports when the vehicle is operating under a testing permit, and such reporting is not required for vehicles operating under a deployment permit. The California DMV defines “Deployment” as “the operation of an autonomous vehicle on public roads by members of the public who are not employees, contractors, or designees of a manufacturer or for purposes of sale, lease, providing transportation services or transporting property for a fee, or otherwise making commercially available outside of a testing program.” Consequently, collisions involving some autonomous vehicles, such as those operating as robotaxis, may not be recorded.
Resolution Notes
The California DMV recorded 11 autonomous vehicle collisions for October, November, and December 2023.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 24 | 95% | |
| Between 25 and 34, inclusive | 3% | |
| Between 35 and 44, inclusive | 1% | |
| Between 45 and 54, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than or equal to 55 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 77 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 400 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
