It's uncertain whether the EU will import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Given the ongoing shifts in energy dynamics and the EU's commitment to reducing reliance on Russian gas, it's likely that imports from Russia could be significantly lower than in previous years.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 500
0%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
0%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
100%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
I believe I'm right because predicting specific incidents of political violence involves numerous variables, including historical trends, current events, and ongoing tensions in the region, which together create a complex and uncertain environment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong because unforeseen events, such as sudden political shifts, escalations in conflict, or effective peace initiatives, can significantly alter the landscape and impact the occurrence of violence in Gaza.
Files
I suggest to not go all in on any bin, unless you are really sure. Current rate would be slightly lower than your estimate, but it might go up or down wildly. Broad distribution is the name of the game for things like this :-)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
39%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
61%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
I believe I'm right because measles cases are influenced by vaccination rates and public health responses, which can be assessed based on historical data and trends.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong because unexpected outbreaks, changes in vaccination rates, or shifts in public health policy could significantly alter the incidence of measles cases in that time frame.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
20%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Predicting the exact number of German-language disinformation cases from pro-Kremlin media between specific dates is challenging due to the unpredictable nature of information dissemination, evolving geopolitical circumstances, and varying levels of media monitoring. However, it's reasonable to expect that disinformation efforts will continue, potentially resulting in numerous cases throughout that period. The actual count would depend on many factors, including responses from governments and media organizations to counter such narratives.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong because disinformation campaigns can be influenced by numerous unpredictable factors, such as changes in geopolitical dynamics, shifts in media strategies, increased countermeasures by governments and organizations, and fluctuations in public awareness and resilience to such narratives, all of which could significantly alter the volume and impact of disinformation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 30 days
0%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
100%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
My response is based on general patterns observed in conflict resolution and historical precedents.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My assessment might be wrong due to unpredictable political changes, escalating tensions, lack of trust, external interference, and deep-seated historical grievances that could undermine any peace agreement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Argentina
30%
Bolivia
30%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Predicting whether specific countries like Argentina, Bolivia, or Ecuador will default on their external debt before a specific date involves analyzing various economic, political, and social factors.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While there is a risk of default in any country, particularly those with existing economic challenges, predicting an exact outcome for specific countries by a specific date remains uncertain.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It's quite possible that scientists will successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by January 1, 2035. There's been significant progress in synthetic biology, and researchers are making strides in understanding and engineering cellular systems.
Why might you be wrong?
While challenges remain, advancements in technology and our understanding of biology could lead to breakthroughs in this area within that timeframe.