70th
Accuracy Rank

doyenne

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2024 Season Stats

0.401868

Relative Brier Score

26

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 72 26 72
Comments 0 0 13 2 13
Questions Forecasted 0 0 23 19 23
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 4 1 4
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
doyenne made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
doyenne made their 5th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
doyenne made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
95% (0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
doyenne made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
33% (0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
67% (0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

International pressure on Israel.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Desire to eliminate Hamas.

Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
doyenne made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
doyenne made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
25% (0%)
Yes
75% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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