In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?

Started Aug 18, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

ExxonMobil is partnering with synthetic biology firm, Viridos (formerly "Synthetic Genomics"), to scale algae-based biofuels (Bloomberg, Nasdaq).  

Question will be resolved if algae-based biofuels or a specific algae-based biofuel project is positively mentioned in ExxonMobil’s press releases for their quarterly earnings, which includes a section highlighting initiatives related to their goal of reducing carbon emission (e.g., see “Leading the Drive to Net 0: Biofuels and Hydrogen” section of the 2Q 2022 Report). A “positive mention” refers to the inclusion of an update involving, but not limited to, ExxonMobil's continued research, production, or use of algae-based biofuels. If the company mentions algae-based biofuels in the context of no longer pursuing this capability, then this question will resolve as “No”.

These press releases can be found at the bottom of ExxonMobil's quarterly earnings page. Algae-based biofuels were most recently mentioned in the 1Q 2018 Report, where ExxonMobil and Viridos (then "Synthetic Genomics") announced "a new phase in their joint algae biofuel research program that could lead to the technical ability to produce 10,000 barrels of algae biofuel per day by 2025."  

Read more about the future of biofuels on the INFER blog.

Additional Reading: 
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022 0%
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023 0%
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023 0%
Not before 1Q 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 745
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.079032
3.
-0.076709
4.
-0.073218
5.
-0.058277

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