What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?

Started Dec 04, 2023 10:30PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

Analysts are concerned that the war between Hamas and Israel could disrupt the oil supply in the region, especially from Iran, a major crude oil producer (Reuters). Cuts in production from Iran could lead to rises in the price of Brent crude, with Goldman Sachs estimating that any 100,000 barrel a day decline in Iran’s production would raise the Brent oil price by over $1 a barrel (WSJ).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using the highest price of Brent crude oil reported by TradingEconomics.com

On Trading Economics, changing the chart from a line chart to a candlestick chart (see image below) will show the open (O), intraday high (H), intraday low (L), and close (C) prices on any given day. The question will be resolved using the highest intraday high between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024.



This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 03/18/24 03:33pm
This question will be resolved using the highest intraday price recorded between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024. The resolution criteria has been updated to show how to easily view intraday highs on Trading Economics.
Resolution Notes

The highest price was $86.981 per barrel, recorded on 29 March 2024.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $90 96%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100 4%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110 0%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120 0%
More than or equal to $120 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 574
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042897
2.
-0.039368
3.
-0.036767
4.
-0.027614
5.
-0.02686

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username