SOUZACaio

Day by day, confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah are growing. Every day, Israel's military kills some members of this group, considered as terrorist by Israel and other countries, as well as the Lebanese movement launches rockets toward Israeli territory.

However, several reasons justify the low possibility of Israel declare war against the group. Firstly, Iran, which support by financial, and intelligence aids the militants, already announced that will not enter in the ongoing conflict against the Jewish nation, although remains against its enemies; the same was done by the own movement. In second place, there is no internal support to the Israeli military start operations in Lebanese soil. Also, the international community is impeding the spread of the war toward Lebanon to avoid another civil war as the lived by country for more than 3 decades. Finally, if the current battles in Palestine are being deadly, in Lebanon would be more dramatically murder.

Hence, the conflict will not spread to Lebanon, neither Israel will declare war against Hezbollah.

Russia will try to unfreeze this war in the next seasons. For months it is frozen without any significative advances by both sides.

Obviously, it will not try to attack with boots on the ground Ukraine's capital, due the incapacity and the quantity of equipment demanded by an operation of this type. But will reopen the fronts in Odesa, Kharkiv or in two cities at the same time because its troops already are near of these regions as well as the conquer of them means part of the victory in this war for Russians, which Putin will use this internally, of course.

Therefore, trying to enjoy the difficulties that Ukraine is facing nowadays, the aggressor country will do this in the next months. Then, the probability is not so high because Russia is also facing some difficulties, mainly on recruitment and infantry battles, that is, the last conflicts were an actual meat grinder.

Russia will try to unfreeze this war in the next seasons. For months it is frozen without any significative advances by both sides.

Obviously, it will not try to attack with boots on the ground Ukraine's capital, due the incapacity and the quantity of equipment demanded by an operation of this type. But will reopen the fronts in Odesa, Kharkiv or in two cities at the same time because its troops already are near of these regions as well as the conquer of them means part of the victory in this war for Russians, which Putin will use this internally, of course.

Therefore, trying to enjoy the difficulties that Ukraine is facing nowadays, the aggressor country will do this in the next months. Then, the probability is not so high because Russia is also facing some difficulties, mainly on recruitment and infantry battles, that is, the last conflicts were an actual meat grinder.

Russia will try to unfreeze this war in the next seasons. For months it is frozen without any significative advances by both sides.

Obviously it will not try to attack with boots on the ground Ukraine's capital, due the incapacity and the quantity of equipment demanded by an operation of this type. But will reopen the fronts in Odesa, Kharkiv or in two cities at the same time because its troops already are near of these regions as well as the conquer of them means part of the victory in this war for Russians, which Putin will use this internally, of course. 

Therefore, trying to enjoy the difficulties that Ukraine is facing nowadays, the aggressor country will do this in the next months.

The current Netanyahu's cabinet depends directly that the Israeli massacre against Palestinian people carries on. The far-right politicians that are part of this government already warned Bibi that, if he agrees any pause in the conflict, his cabinet would be dissolved quickly, and he would be arrested due judicial trials faced by him since 2020.

Though, already there are evidence that the international support is not the same since the beginning of this military campaign, even after the Iranian attack in Israeli territory. Every week, so many demonstrations against the ongoing Israel's war happen throughout the world, in recent days, American students are protesting against the United States' unquestionable support to Israeli actions, day by day the international community do criticism on American solo denying of pause in this conflict at UNSC, news about violation of International Law and war crimes committed by Israeli military appear, and several attempts to reach an agreement that impose an end or even a freezing of confrontations occurred in different nations. Moreover, the internal situation in Jewish State is not so good for Netanyahu's cabinet; thousands of people go the streets demanding the rescue of hostages and the end of military actions.

Thus, an agreement of cease-fire is imminent, although the Israeli politicians, mainly Netanyahu's government, being contrary.

The current Netanyahu's cabinet depends directly that the Israeli massacre against Palestinian people carries on. The far-right politicians that are part of this government already warned Bibi that, if he agrees any pause in the conflict, his cabinet would be dissolved quickly, and he would be arrested due judicial trials faced by him since 2020. 

Though, already there are evidence that the international support is not the same since the beginning of this military campaign, even after the Iranian attack in Israeli territory.  Every week, so many demonstrations against the ongoing Israel's war happen throughout the world, in recent days, American students are protesting against the United States' unquestionable support to Israeli actions, day by day the international community do criticism on American solo denying of pause in this conflict at UNSC, news about violation of International Law and war crimes committed by Israeli military appear, and several attempts to reach an agreement that impose an end or even a freezing of confrontations occurred in different nations. Moreover, the internal situation in Jewish State is not so good for Netanyahu's cabinet; thousands of people go the streets demanding the rescue of hostages and the end of military actions.

Thus, an agreement of cease-fire is imminent, although the Israeli politicians, mainly Netanyahu's government, being contrary.

In Kazakhstan case, the probability of Russia initializes an invasion is significantly low because the ongoing dictator on power, which will remain for a long time ahead of this country, is allied of Putin's ambitions. Despite the refusing of support strongly Russia's invasion to Ukraine, the country remains a firm allied of it.

There is no evidence and apparent reason to Russia invade Armenia. Until months ago, the country had Russia as the only allied against Azerbaijan and, currently, is search for more international support, which works as an impeditive to any adventure of this type. Does not exist a separatist movement pro-Russia there to Putin justify a possible invasion or use Karaganov doctrine as well as the Russia disinvolvement of region is a clear signal of the incapacity to this country be there while happens a war in its neighbor.

Both Moldova as Georgia have separatist groups pro-Russia within their territories, working in autonomous regions. But, in Moldovan case, Russia would need resolve its war in Ukraine to use the Black Sea or the Ukrainian territory to provide equipment to its soldiers, thought will not happen in a soon future; and in Georgian situation, the possibility is softly high, however remains unlikely due to Georgia's relationship with European Union as well as the unsolved question in Ukraine.

The Russian military invasion to Ukraine is costing a huge amount of money, weapons, and lives to Putin's State. Then, meanwhile Russia be involved in a war against a neighbor State supported by Western countries, which has no evidence to end soon, it will not start any military adventure in another place.

The probability of Russia begins an attack against one of these countries listed above is low due the pattern of supposed military special operation. In Ukraine, in Crimeia in 2014, in Luhansk and in Donetsk in 2022, or even in Georgia in 2008, Russia did its military actions in places where already existed separatist movements related to its Soviet past. Moreover, neither of these nations were members of NATO.

Therefore, if Russia starts a new war adventure, it would do in a country with separatist movements related to it. Also, Russia would not try open confrontations against NATO members.