INFER Public

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	4%	+5%	+0%
No	91%	96%	-5%	+0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:29PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	7%	+3%	+1%
No	90%	Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	93%	-3%	-1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:47PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:48PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	3%	+0%	-1%
No	97%	97%	+0%	+1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:55PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	99%	96%	+3%	+4%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	1%	4%	-3%	-4%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:56PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	8%	8%	+0%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	8%	11%	-3%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
No	96%	96%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	Jul 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	2%	+0%	-3%
No	98%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	98%	+0%	+3%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 06:17PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	97%	+2%	+0%

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