Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?

Started Aug 31, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC

In August, India made history by becoming the first country to successfully land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole and the fourth country to land on the moon at all (Science, Guardian). This comes in a year of increased space exploration activity, as Russia’s Luna-25 and the privately-funded Hakuto-R moon missions both ended in failure earlier this year (Reuters, ispace). Multiple moon missions are still planned for 2023, including two by private companies: Peregrine Mission 1 and Nova-C IM-1 (Spectrum). Japan’s “Moon Sniper”, whose August launch was postponed due to bad weather, may also still launch this year, but a new launch date has yet to be set (DW). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using reputable news reports and will be resolved as “Yes” if any organization safely lands on the moon before 1 June 2024. Minor damage to a spacecraft or other small problems that occur during its flight or landing would not necessarily prevent the question from being resolved as "Yes". A mission that ends in a crash or other event that results in catastrophic damage or loss of communication with the craft would be considered unsuccessful and would not count towards resolution.
Resolution Notes

Japan's JAXA SLIM "Moon Sniper" landed successfully on the moon on 19 Jan 2024. The spacecraft maintained communications throughout and was operational upon landing, despite some issues with the solar panels.

https://www.space.com/japan-moon-landing-success-slim-spacecraft
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/japan-slim-lunar-lander-touches-down-on-moon.html

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85%
No 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 98
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 428
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.045145
2.
-0.044842
3.
-0.042742
4.
-0.042187
5.
-0.039257

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username