Confirmed previous forecast
-0.042187
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster of the Month - Jan 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 24
6%
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
3%
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
28%
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
63%
More than or equal to 55
Why do you think you're right?
Increase in # of AVs on the road
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Backlash, or fewer accidents because of AVs
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Yes
0%
(-1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moon Sniper
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Moon Sniper crash
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
1%
No
Moon Sniper
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Doesn't seem like a great time in general to IPO in the next 2 months...
Files
Cruise taken off the roads.