In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?

Started Feb 23, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

This question will resolve using data from the UK’s Energy Trends report on biofuels' share of the total volume of road fuels in 2023. This data is reported in the “Liquid Biofuels for Transport Consumption (ET 6.2-quarterly)”. See the “Main table” sheet tab and the row marked “Total biofuels as per cent of road fuels”. The percentage for 2021 was 4.9% and 2020 was 5.7%. Question will close for forecasting on 31 December 2023 and resolve when the Q4 data is released in March 2024.  
 
A chart showing biofuels’ share of total transport fuels is below:


Read more about the future of biofuels on the INFER blog.


Question clarification
Issued on 02/24/23 03:24pm
The link in the resolution criteria has been updated so that you navigate to both the pdf overview of the most recent report (Energy Trends December 2022) and the excel spreadsheet containing the data used for resolution (Liquid biofuels for transport consumption (ET 6.2 - quarterly)).
Resolution Notes

The UK Energy Trends report indicated that biofuels made up 7.5% of road fuels in 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5% 1%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6% 0%
More than or equal to 6% 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 716
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.02901
2.
-0.024046
3.
-0.022182
4.
-0.020039
5.
-0.01993

Consensus Trend

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