Confirmed previous forecast
0.036854
Relative Brier Score
52
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 12 | 178 | 52 | 354 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 11 | 48 | 15 | 80 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 17 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(-46%)
Yes
76%
(+46%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating given current Iran-Israel relations, seems less likely Israel will make a deal
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Hamas capitulates due to aggressive stance
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
1%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+98%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
0%
(-98%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Happened
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping way down since no further moves since initial drone strikes. Unclear that foreign powers would be happy with any escalation from Israel.
Why might you be wrong?
Last ditch move from Netanyahu on the way out to gain crowd favour?