Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:19PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:19PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:19PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:19PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 3% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 97% | -1% | +1% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | 3% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 100% | Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024 | May 21, 2024 | 97% | +3% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 9% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 92% | 91% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 07:23PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 21, 2024 07:23PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 55% | -31% | +0% |
| No | 76% | 45% | +31% | +0% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 26, 2024 11:06AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Apr 26, 2024 11:06AM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 6% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 95% | Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024 | May 26, 2024 | 94% | +1% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 02:36PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 13, 2024 02:36PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | 2% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 93% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | 98% | -5% | +0% |