martinsluis

Adjusting

Adjusting as the offensive, while closing on Kharkiv, seams to be losing steam.

I may have overshot this. Moving a bit lower for now

As of March 20th (about 7 weeks ago), the excel file suggests 28 fatalities (Battles, Violence against civilians and Strategic development) while the ACLED dashboard counts 40 for the same period, so one must forecast this question taking into account this added uncertainty.

From June 1st to May 10th, (345 days and about 94% of the time frame) I infer 41 fatalities from the ACLED data (last week = 43), which if extrapolated, points to bin 1 with about 43,5 fatalities (last week = 46,6).

It seams that the data has been revised downward. As a result of all these considerations, I feel that bin 1 and 2 should be about 90/10 if one only considers the ACLED dashboard, but since the trend has been towards bin 1 and the excel file (which will be used for resolution) points to a lower figure, I'm over-weighing under 50.

As of May 10th, the current rate is 386 events in 345 days (about 94% of the time frame), which if extrapolated, computes to about 410 (last week = 413).

Up until now the rate has been about 1,12 events per day and in order for this question to resolve above 500 the rate for the remainder of time has to be, on average, above 5,43 (last week = 4,25).

Reaffirming.

As of May 10th, the current rate is 2 295 events in 345 days (about 94% of the time frame), which if extrapolated, computes to about 2 435 (last week = 2 462).

Up until now the rate has been about 6,65 events per day (last week = 6,73) and in order for this question to resolve outside bin 4 the rate for the remainder of time has to be, on average, above 33,57 (last week = 25,93). It seams to me that barring a massive data revision, this question is settled.

Reaffirming, 

A while back it looked like this could be possible, but more and more it seams that Israel's government will only accept a cease fire once there is nobody left to sign it ... so, for normalization talks to resume something has to give, maybe a new Israeli government ... Moving significantly lower.