Confirmed previous forecast
0.223685
Relative Brier Score
1763
Forecasts
106
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 53 | 175 | 2519 | 783 | 2546 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 34 |
| Questions Forecasted | 39 | 43 | 107 | 52 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 6 | 138 | 36 | 142 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
Yes
2%
No
Dictators don't give up power easily. This question amounts to the odds of a coup and the mortality rate - very low for 6 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+45%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
50%
(-45%)
No
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
After the helicopter crash, this is about 50/50 until Khamenei is found one way or the other.
Files
I misread some news reports and had already reverted to my previous position. In any case, thank you for the warning.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-45%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
95%
(+45%)
No
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Ops ... misread the news :) going back
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(+10%)
Yes
87%
(-10%)
No
Moving up on latest signs that MSFT is exploring relocating its AI workers.
Files