As of March 20th (about 5 weeks ago), the excel file suggests 28 fatalities (Battles, Violence against civilians and Strategic development) while the ACLED dashboard counts 40 for the same period, so one must forecast this question taking into account this added uncertainty.
From June 1st to April 19th, (326 days and about 89% of the time frame) I infer 41 fatalities from the ACLED data (same as last week), which if extrapolated, points to bin 1 with about 46 fatalities (last week = 47,3).
As a result of all these considerations, I feel that bin 1 and 2 should be about 80/20 if one only considers the ACLED dashboard, but since the trend has been towards bin 1 and the excel file (which will be used for resolution) points to a lower figure, I'm overweighing under 50.
As of March 20th (about 5 weeks ago), the excel file suggests 28 fatalities (Battles, Violence against civilians and Strategic development) while the ACLED dashboard counts 40 for the same period, so one must forecast this question taking into account this added uncertainty.
From June 1st to April 19th, (326 days and about 89% of the time frame) I infer 41 fatalities from the ACLED data (same as last week), which if extrapolated, points to bin 1 with about 46 fatalities (last week = 47,3).
As a result of all these considerations, I feel that bin 1 and 2 should be about 80/20 if one only considers the ACLED dashboard, but since the trend has been towards bin 1 and the excel file (which will be used for resolution) points to a lower figure, I'm overweighing under 50.