Following @PeterStamp
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Forecasting Activity
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 75 | 1632 | 397 | 3169 |
| Comments | 1 | 20 | 704 | 179 | 1398 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 41 | 108 | 51 | 190 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 26 | 932 | 218 | 1469 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
(-1%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100%
(+1%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 3000
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(-4%)
Yes
May 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2024
89%
(+4%)
No
May 8, 2024 to Nov 8, 2024
Counting on Gaza to reduce tensions at home in Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
7%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Holding steady. Comparison class: the time lag between the announcement that Ukraine would receive F-16s and actual delivery, which is pending AFAIK.
Dateline 5-1-2024 The F-16s were slated to arrive in the first part of 2024, but the Dutch government announced in January that Ukraine would receive an initial batch in the "second quarter" of the year.
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-fighter-jets-air-force-1895964
In the case of Su-35s, I haven't found any evidence of Iranian pilot training. SO there should be a considerable time lag, comparable or longer than Ukraine, which has had pilots in traianing for F-16s since at least October 2023.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(+4%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Rethinking the values of the F-16s about to go into service.
Files
Passage of time.