DKC
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35% (+20%)
Yes
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
65% (-20%)
No
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

I believe as soon as the optics are better, (a peace treaty, Netanyahu withdrawing IDF post-Rafah) Indonesia will normalize. It is just a bit sticky right now the Gaza Palestinians so obviously suffering horrific conditions.


https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-796514

Indonesia is expected to normalize ties with Israel as part of its bid to become the 39th member of the OECD, a diplomatic source revealed on Thursday.


The Southeast Asian nation is home to the largest Muslim population of any country. Its normalization with Israel would send a powerful signal of acceptance for the Jewish state at a time when it is facing increased isolation due to the Gaza war.


The potential for Israeli-Indonesian normalization came about because all Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries, including Israel, have to approve its membership bid to that international economic organization.

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Why might you be wrong?

But also...

https://www.newarab.com/news/israel-says-progress-made-indonesia-normalisation-talks

FTA:

Indonesia’s vice-President Ma'ruf Amin said last month that the two countries were not on course to establish diplomatic relations and Jakarta had not changed its position on the Palestinian issue since the Asia-Africa Conference held in the country in 1955.


"Indonesia is firm in its position of rejecting that [normalisation]," he said, describing the occupied territory as "the largest prison in the world for Palestinian people".


Indonesia President Joko Widodo's office also denied Israeli reports that Israel and Indonesia were intending to normalise relations in October, before the war suspended talks.


AND

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/indonesia-willing-normalise-ties-israel-bid-join-oecd-report

FTA: 

Indonesia is willing to normalise relations with Israel in exchange for Israeli approval of its request to join the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), according to a report in Israel's Ynet News on Thursday. 


However, Indonesia later denied the report.

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