Based on the actual tendency of the numbers, and historic data analysis
El Salvador saw a significant drop in homicides in 2023, with the homicide rate falling to 2.4 per 100,000 people, which is the lowest in the Americas apart from Canada. This represents a 70% decrease in murders compared to previous years.
And recenlty:
“So far in 2024, El Salvador already has the lowest homicide rate in the entire Western Hemisphere. If the trend continues, the homicide rate would be 1.6 per 100,000 inhabitants,” Bukele assured on X amid his presidential bid. (from: https://efe.com/en/other-news/2024-02-03/fear-of-police-replaces-gang-violence-in-el-salvador/ )
From Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvador-says-murders-fell-70-2023-it-cracked-down-gangs-2024-01-03/ quote: "El Salvador says murders fell 70% in 2023 as it cracked down on gangs" end of quote.
Also, quote: "Since the civil war ended in 1992, violence in El Salvador has been described as endemic. El Salvador’s high homicide rate has been dropping since 2015, when it was deemed the most violent country in the hemisphere with 6 650 murders and a homicide rate of 103 murders per 100 000 residents." end of quote, from: Insight Crime, Insight Crime’s 2015 Homocide Round up, 14 January 2016 and excerpt from https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2069464/2022_03_11_EUAA_COI_Query_Response_El_Salvador_Security_Situation.pdf page 2
The previous data indicates a significant diminishing rate since Pres. Bukele started implementing law enforcement policies
Forecast: Due to the frametime closing, I estimte the number to be below 50
Update